“Peace is not the absence of conflict, but the ability to cope with it.”
— Mahatma Gandhi
Understanding Global Conflicts: Beyond the Numbers
The Human Dimension of Conflict
Armed conflicts are more than datapoints on a map or statistics in a chart. Each number represents lives disrupted, communities fractured, and futures altered. As we analyze these conflicts through quantitative measures, we must not lose sight of the human stories beneath the data.
The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) defines an armed conflict as “a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar year.” This clinical definition helps researchers categorize and track conflicts, but it cannot capture the full complexity of why people fight and how conflicts transform societies.
Root Causes: The Invisible Drivers of Conflict
Most contemporary conflicts stem from a complex interplay of factors:
Governance and Political Exclusion
When governments fail to represent all segments of society equitably, marginalized groups may turn to violence as a means of addressing grievances. This is particularly pronounced in states with:
- Weak institutions unable to manage political competition peacefully
- Elite capture of resources and power
- Political transitions that create uncertainty and opportunity for violent actors
Identity and Social Cohesion
Many conflicts arise along identity lines—ethnic, religious, linguistic, or tribal—especially when:
- Historical narratives of victimization reinforce group solidarity against a perceived enemy
- Political entrepreneurs mobilize identity groups for violent purposes
- Educational systems and media reinforce rather than bridge identity divides
Resource Competition
As climate change intensifies and populations grow, competition over resources has become an increasingly significant driver of conflict:
- Water scarcity is projected to affect 52% of the world’s population by 2050
- Arable land is diminishing in many regions due to desertification and urbanization
- Extractive industries often create local grievances while national elites capture benefits
Geopolitical Interference
Few conflicts remain purely domestic affairs. External actors often:
- Provide military support to proxy forces
- Use economic leverage to influence outcomes
- Block international consensus on potential solutions
Conflict Cycles: Why Wars Are Difficult to End
Research has consistently shown that countries that have experienced civil wars are significantly more likely to experience them again. This “conflict trap” results from:
- Normalization of violence as a political tool
- Proliferation of weapons remaining in circulation
- Damaged social cohesion and trust between communities
- Economic devastation limiting peaceful opportunities
- Environmental degradation intensifying resource competition
The average civil conflict now lasts more than 20 years—a dramatic increase from the 7-year average during the Cold War period.
Emerging Trends in Global Conflict
Recent conflict data from 2020-2025 shows several concerning trends:
- Internationalization of civil conflicts has increased, with external powers more willing to intervene directly or through proxies
- Urban warfare is becoming more common, placing civilians at greater risk and complicating humanitarian responses
- Information warfare now accompanies physical violence, with disinformation campaigns often preceding and accompanying military operations
- Climate-related disputes are emerging as a distinct conflict category, particularly around water access
- Technological asymmetry is growing, with some conflicts featuring advanced weapons systems against irregular forces
The Role of Data in Peacebuilding
While data cannot tell the full story of any conflict, rigorous data collection and analysis serve several crucial functions:
- Early warning systems can identify rising tensions before violence erupts
- Evidence-based interventions can target the most significant drivers of specific conflicts
- Accountability mechanisms rely on verified data to document violations of international law
- Resource allocation for humanitarian response depends on accurate assessment of needs
This dashboard serves as a starting point for understanding global conflict dynamics, but it is only through combining quantitative analysis with deep contextual knowledge that we can develop effective approaches to peacebuilding.
Understanding conflict is a prerequisite to ending it.
This dashboard offers a data-driven exploration of global armed conflicts based on the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). Drawing from systematically collected data on organized violence, this tool visualizes trends in fatalities, geographic spread, actor involvement, and historical persistence across decades of conflict.
Our goal is to make complex conflict data accessible, interactive, and interpretable — enabling researchers, journalists, policymakers, and engaged citizens to interrogate not just the where and when, but also the who and how of violence.
What You’ll Find Here:
- Conflict maps that reveal spatial clustering and high-impact zones
- Time series plots that trace the ebb and flow of organized violence
- Rankings of the deadliest dyads, spotlighting persistent and high-fatality confrontations
- Pop-up descriptions providing contextual details for selected events
- Tabular data with key actors, locations, and death tolls for deep-dive exploration
This dashboard is not just a record of violence — it is a lens through which we can better understand power, resistance, and the human cost of unresolved tensions.
Use it critically. Use it responsibly.
Major Active Conflicts: Context Cards
The following cards provide key metrics and context for the most significant ongoing conflicts. Color coding indicates intensity level based on total fatalities.
78,209
Fatalities
11592
Events
3.6%
Civilian
14.1 months
Duration
Region:
Europe
Countries:
Russia (Soviet Union), Ukraine
Active period:
Jan 01, 2024
-
Feb 28, 2025
23,231
Fatalities
3154
Events
25.9%
Civilian
14.1 months
Duration
Region:
Middle East
Countries:
Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen (North Yemen)
Active period:
Jan 01, 2024
-
Feb 28, 2025
6,420
Fatalities
112
Events
4%
Civilian
14.1 months
Duration
Region:
Africa
Countries:
DR Congo (Zaire)
Active period:
Jan 01, 2024
-
Feb 27, 2025
5,038
Fatalities
500
Events
43.4%
Civilian
14.1 months
Duration
Region:
Africa
Countries:
Libya, South Sudan, Sudan
Active period:
Jan 01, 2024
-
Feb 27, 2025
4,294
Fatalities
1125
Events
23.6%
Civilian
14.1 months
Duration
Region:
Middle East
Countries:
Israel, Lebanon, Syria
Active period:
Jan 01, 2024
-
Feb 26, 2025
2,753
Fatalities
423
Events
95.7%
Civilian
14.1 months
Duration
Region:
Asia, Africa, Europe, Middle East
Countries:
Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, DR Congo (Zaire), Germany, Iran, Iraq, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Russia (Soviet Union), Syria, Turkey
Active period:
Jan 01, 2024
-
Feb 26, 2025
2,439
Fatalities
151
Events
13.6%
Civilian
14 months
Duration
Region:
Africa
Countries:
Kenya, Somalia
Active period:
Jan 01, 2024
-
Feb 25, 2025
2,145
Fatalities
158
Events
14.1%
Civilian
14.1 months
Duration
Region:
Africa
Countries:
Ethiopia
Active period:
Jan 02, 2024
-
Feb 28, 2025
Understanding Conflict Intensity
The conflict context cards above provide a snapshot of the major ongoing conflicts tracked in the UCDP database. Each card offers key metrics to understand the scale and impact of the conflict:
- Fatalities: Total documented deaths directly attributable to conflict-related violence
- Events: Number of distinct violent incidents recorded in the database
- Civilian %: Percentage of total fatalities that were civilians
- Duration: Time period over which the conflict has been active
Intensity Classification
Conflicts are categorized by intensity level based on total fatalities:
- Very High (>10,000 fatalities): Catastrophic conflicts with massive humanitarian impact
- High (1,000-10,000 fatalities): Major conflicts with significant regional destabilization
- Medium (100-1,000 fatalities): Serious conflicts requiring international attention
- Low (10-100 fatalities): Limited conflicts often in early stages or winding down
- Very Low (<10 fatalities): Minor incidents or emerging tensions
This classification helps prioritize attention and resources based on humanitarian need, though it’s important to note that fatality counts are often conservative estimates and the true human cost may be higher.
Key Insights: Conflict Scale
The analysis of conflict context cards reveals several important patterns:
Concentration of Severity: A small number of conflicts account for a disproportionate share of global conflict fatalities.
Duration-Intensity Correlation: The longer conflicts tend to be more severe, suggesting conflict entrenchment leads to escalating violence over time.
Regional Clustering: Similar intensity conflicts often cluster geographically, indicating spillover effects and regional conflict systems.
Civilian Vulnerability: Civilian casualties constitute a significant proportion of total fatalities, highlighting the failure of conflict parties to adequately protect non-combatants.
Early Warning Indicators
Based on the analysis of conflict metrics, potential early warning indicators for conflict escalation include:
Increasing Event Frequency: When the number of violent events rises rapidly over a short period.
Rising Civilian Targeting: When the proportion of civilian casualties increases substantially.
Geographic Expansion: When a conflict spreads to previously uninvolved areas within a country or across borders.
Actor Proliferation: When new armed groups emerge within an existing conflict context.
Monitoring these indicators can help identify conflicts at risk of intensification.
Understanding the Global Conflict Map
This interactive map visualizes all conflict events in the UCDP database, with several key features:
- Circle size represents the relative number of fatalities in each event
- Color coding indicates the severity category based on fatality count
- Multiple view options allow different perspectives on the data:
- Standard view shows individual events
- Heat map reveals areas of concentrated violence
- Clustered view helps identify conflict hotspots
- Base map options let you switch between different visual styles
Navigation Tips
- Click any point to see detailed information about the specific conflict event
- Hover over points to see quick summary information
- Use layer controls (top right) to toggle different visualizations
- Use the measure tool (top left) to calculate distances between conflict areas
- Use the locate button to find conflicts near your location
- Use the reset button to return to the global view
Key Patterns Visible in the Map
- Regional conflict clusters are evident in the Middle East, Central Africa, and parts of South Asia
- Border areas often show higher conflict density, particularly in disputed territories
- Urban centers frequently experience more concentrated violence
- Remote areas with valuable resources (minerals, oil) often show conflict patterns
- Maritime conflicts are visible in disputed waters, particularly in Southeast Asia
Regional Conflict Distribution Insights
The bubble map above provides a broad overview of how conflict fatalities are distributed geographically:
- Middle East shows the highest concentration of fatalities despite affecting relatively fewer countries, indicating higher-intensity conflicts
- Africa has the widest geographical spread of conflicts across numerous countries, suggesting more diffuse patterns of violence
- Asia shows significant fatality counts but with varied intensity across a large number of countries
- Europe traditionally had lower conflict levels, but the Russia-Ukraine war has significantly increased its fatality count
- Americas show lower overall fatalities but persistent low-intensity conflicts in specific areas
This regional view complements the detailed conflict map by providing a higher-level perspective on global conflict distribution.
Conflict Dynamics Analysis
Understanding how conflicts evolve over time provides crucial insights into their nature, potential for resolution, and humanitarian impact. This analysis examines pattern variations among major active conflicts.
Conflict Trajectory Patterns
The cumulative fatalities graph reveals distinct conflict patterns:
- Steady Escalation: Conflicts showing consistent increases in fatalities over time, indicating persistent violence
- Step-Function Pattern: Conflicts with periods of relative calm interrupted by sudden escalations
- Plateau Pattern: Conflicts that reach a certain level of intensity and then stabilize
- Deceleration Curve: Conflicts where the rate of fatalities decreases over time, potentially indicating conflict fatigue
Event-Fatality Relationship
The scatter plot comparing daily events to fatalities reveals important differences in conflict characteristics:
High-Intensity/Low-Frequency Conflicts: Some conflicts show few events but high fatality counts per event, typically indicating use of heavy weapons or attacks on populated areas
Low-Intensity/High-Frequency Conflicts: Other conflicts show many events with lower fatalities per event, suggesting guerrilla tactics or lower-intensity insurgencies
Outlier Events: Extreme points far from the trend line often represent massacres, major battles, or incidents with high civilian casualties
These patterns have significant implications for humanitarian response planning, as different conflict types require different intervention approaches.
Temporal Patterns
The conflict intensity heatmap highlights several temporal aspects of conflict:
Seasonality: Some conflicts show regular seasonal patterns, often tied to weather conditions affecting mobility
Negotiation Effects: Periods of reduced intensity sometimes correlate with peace negotiations or ceasefires
Escalation Triggers: Sudden intensity increases may follow political events, external interventions, or resource availability to conflict parties
Conflict Synchronization: Some regional conflicts show coordinated intensity patterns, suggesting interconnections between seemingly separate conflicts
Understanding these temporal dynamics helps predict humanitarian needs and identify potential windows for peace initiatives.
Data Source: All data used is from the GED dataset of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (ucdp) and the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) database. The data is publicly available and can be accessed at UCDP.
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